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Hey Dan,While I can't answer your question I'll just note that I've tried the Auto Best option but never been satisfied with it's ability to forecast...
EG - you cannot remove error or unusual data (eg a public holiday) from the source data - hence the forecast can be very inaccurate.I prefer the granularity of the Weighted Historical - I can delete strange days and tweak volumes to my hearts content!
Hey Dan,Happy to help!
I use the full 8 weeks (i'd use more if it was available) then delete the days with out of the ordinary data - public holidays, hail events etc. Then with that as the basis I'll tweak overall volumes with modifications to suit the trends and compress handle times to remove outliers. I work on a 4 week schedule so I'll make one forecast and copy it to have 4 weeks of forecasts, and tweak them further as I see emerging trends.We also have email queues - and as the emails come in at all hours I also have to modify those forecasts to have the volume of emails during our business hours rather than when they arrive.It's a bit fiddly, but I prefer the hands on approach so that I get a fairly accurate forecast that I know intimately. Well, as accurate as I can get for our lowish volumes (~5-6k interactions a week)
Hey Tom,Yeah we have well over 2 years data now but I seem to have issues with those outlier days with ABM and as you can't really tweak them out of the forecast I've stayed with the WH. Ideally I'd love a little of the smoothing features that the ABM uses within the WH system - that would give me the best of both options.
If you are seeing significantly higher forecast error and significantly lower forecast accuracy when using ABM compared to WHI (especially with no modifications applied to either), then I would recommend opening a support ticket so we can investigate further. If there is an issue, we can address it. If it is an area of improvement, then we can evaluate when to get it into the product.
Note: you can hover over total offered and AHT in upper right of forecast view to get error and accuracy numbers for forecasts in the past.
General comment about modifications: very common for forecast accuracy to be significantly higher when modifications are disabled. Not in all cases, but in a significant number mods over stock make worse forecasts.
Also, you don't need to wait a year before using ABM. We have made several improvements since first release for 'cold start' type scenarios where you have very limited historical data.
Hey Daniel and Jay,
Thanks for your additional info - it's great to hear a bit more about how it all works.In my case - I'd kill to have the ability to either select the raw data before the ABM does it's thing, or the ability to start with the WH, remove the spurious data and then apply smoothing and trends etc like the ABM.
As a test case, I've created a test ABM forecast for early in the new year... A few issues I had was that as we do car insurance we have hail events that greatly blow out our queues - Using WH I'd obviously not include that data, but as the events were large and have occurred at a similar time of year the ABM included a huge kick in volumes for one of our planning groups. To fix the forecast I'd have to manually set that group to zero with a modification, whereas with WH I just delete that from the source data. Public holidays can also require modifications that the ABM doesn't quite pick up on.So I'm definitely interested in the future developments that help the ABM!
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